Are You Being Fooled By Statistics?

The world’s worst defender of statistical manipulation is the government, followed closely by the financial press. Yes, I guess that counts me too. We are two years away from our nation’s next presidential election, which has historically been good for stocks, so I thought I would normalize some of the government’s economic data to give you a better understanding of the true strength or weakness in our economy. I am not trying to persuade you one way or the other, I am merely trying to remove the deception from the data. I will present a case for the bears followed by the bulls, as there are two sides to every argument and I encourage you to make up your own opinion based on the facts.

Fin Alternatives
Multi-Manager July 27, 2007
ProfitScore Launches Multi-Manager, Long/Short Product

Emerging Manager Monthly
Taking The Lead September 2007
ProfitScore Looks To Take The Lead Diversified Hedge Fund

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Private portfolio management for individual and institutional clients.
Investment Methodology

The foundation for our investment decisions is based on the fact that markets are constantly changing; and within every market environment, opportunities exist to invest in appreciating assets.

ProfitScore's management style is not to try to identify tops and bottoms - it is to constantly align our portfolios' exposure to asset classes, whose risk in proportion to the expected return is favorable, given the prevailing evidence.

Markets move through cycles, roughly reflecting the "boom and bust" characteristics of their underlying economies. Driven by changing perceptions of the fundamentals by market participants, bull and bear trends play out among the various industry group and asset class categories. Below is a graphic depiction of how asset classes generally participate in a business cycle.

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At ProfitScore, we define ourselves as a quantitative manager with a systematic, disciplined approach. Capital preservation is the cornerstone of our methodology. At ProfitScore, understanding risk is where every investment decision begins, and we believe that investment success over the long run can only be achieved through appropriate risk mitigation, even in aggressive strategies.