Are You Being Fooled By Statistics?

The world’s worst defender of statistical manipulation is the government, followed closely by the financial press. Yes, I guess that counts me too. We are two years away from our nation’s next presidential election, which has historically been good for stocks, so I thought I would normalize some of the government’s economic data to give you a better understanding of the true strength or weakness in our economy. I am not trying to persuade you one way or the other, I am merely trying to remove the deception from the data. I will present a case for the bears followed by the bulls, as there are two sides to every argument and I encourage you to make up your own opinion based on the facts.

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Risk Management

At ProfitScore, understanding risk is where every investment decision begins. Achieving our investment goals of generating significant capital appreciation on a risk adjusted basis requires a sound risk management plan for both bull and bear markets.

As the millennium bear market has shown, the equity market can and will decrease in value. What many investors don't realize or have forgotten is that these negative market periods can last for years or even decades. Below is a graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back until the early 1900's. During this turbulent time, we have experienced three positive market cycles and three negative market cycles.


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After the bear market began in January 1999, it took seven years until September, 2006, for the Dow to reach its previous equity high.  Many investors still have not regained their losses. 

Controlling Risk Underlies Human Achievement

It's ironic that so many financial professionals advocate buy-and-hold investment approaches rather than strategies such as ProfitScore's, to control the risk of down markets. In a remarkable book called Against the Gods: the Amazing Story of Risk, published in 1998, one of the most respected figures on Wall Street, Peter Bernstein, chronicles how the human race developed mathematics, business practices and insurance in order to deal with risk. Bernstein maintains that without the ability to deal with risk and change, business on a modern scale is not really possible.